October 24, 2002
After Bali, the need to understand
Since the massacre in Bali four days ago, this view has become more widespread. But if we are to get a deeper idea of what is really happening, we need to look at a number of events and developments of the past two weeks, perhaps best placed in the context of earlier analyses concerning Afghanistan and al-Qaida (also see an earlier article).The fourth incident takes us away from al-Qaida and back to Iraq. It relates to reliable reports (for example in the International Herald Tribune) that US action subsequent to the intended destruction of the Saddam Hussein regime now leans towards the military occupation of Iraq, pending the eventual establishment of some kind of client regime.
Indeed, one small item of news, so far missed in the Western press, is that the United States has offered the Israeli government twenty-four hours notice of an attack on Iraq (Defense News, 14 October 2002). From an American point of view this makes good sense, not least as a tactic for helping to keep Israel out of the war, but throughout the Middle East it will be seen as further proof, if any were needed, of the intricate links between the US and Israel.
It is in this context that the US plan to occupy Iraq should be seen. Again, from Washington’s perspective this makes sense – there is no point in destroying the regime only to see Iraq come apart in chaos. But from the perspective of al-Qaida, it merely proves their point; Iraq may be a secular regime but it is still primarily an Arab state and US occupation would be proof of one of al-Qaida’s long-term arguments – that Washington, along with Israel, seeks control of the region.
This brings us back to the terrible events in Bali. Exactly who was responsible, and the extent of the connections with al-Qaida, may remain unclear for a long time, but one effect of the atrocity will be to renew a commitment to the war on terror – a war conducted primarily by military means.
What we are still failing to do is to understand the root causes of the support for such movements. To seek to understand is not to condone in any shape or form, but it does raise the possibility of recognising the reasons for their enduring support and, in turn, offering some prospect for undercutting it.
Posted at October 24, 2002 12:12 AM | Perspective
